Against the backdrop of the war in the Middle East, the threat of a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and growing disagreements between the United States and Europe, the West still lacks a unified position on key security issues. At the same time, Russia’s war against Ukraine and the confrontation with Iran are increasingly seen as parts of a broader conflict, while Europe’s energy resilience is viewed as a direct prerequisite for its defense capability.
This was stated in a comment to Guildhall by Lithuanian MEP Rasa Juknevičienė, a member of the European Parliament’s Committee on Foreign Affairs.
— Is there an understanding in the West of the threats facing the West itself if attention shifts completely from Ukraine to the Middle East?
— First of all, there is no such thing as a single West. If we mean the European Union, that is one thing. If we are talking about individual European states and the United States, that is something else. Their approaches differ.
There is also a personal understanding of this situation. Russia’s war against Ukraine on the European continent and what is now happening around Iran are different, but still parts of the same war. Because Russia, Iran, North Korea, and China are, in essence, a single hostile bloc.
At the same time, the West today is not as united in its assessments as one would like. The United States has been pursuing its own line and its own policy for several years now. Unfortunately, this divides us.
If we speak about Israel, Iran, and Europe itself, opinions differ even within the European Union. There is a left-wing political flank that is more inclined toward the Palestinian perspective. There is also another position — an understanding of Israel’s fight against terrorism and against Iran as the main source of problems in the Middle East.
As for the United States, it has its own view, and it has done what it has done. Even if it is still not entirely clear what exactly Washington wants to achieve. But for many, one thing is obvious: if the Iranian terrorist factor, as the center of many problems that have accumulated in the Middle East, can be eliminated, this will be of great significance.
This is not only about the Iranian regime itself, which kills its own people, but also about Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis — terrorist structures acting as Iranian proxies against Israel. This is also a threat to us. That is the broader context. But so far, there is no unified opinion on this issue.
Moreover, Donald Trump, unfortunately, has done a great deal to distance himself from America’s most natural allies — the European states. And inviting cooperation through the media is not how this should be done. On the other hand, many in Europe are interested in seeing the United States and Israel succeed in this war and in seeing it end as soon as possible with the right outcome. Support is on Israel’s side, because this is an issue that has been building up for years and must be resolved.
— What is the danger of a split between America and Europe for the civilized world?
— It is very easy to explain: such a split helps dictators, above all Putin.
At the same time, it must also be recognized that tough decisions can sometimes produce results. If the conflict with Iran ends in a positive way, if that regime no longer exists in the future, if the states around Iran are able to live more peacefully, and if the energy balance is restored, that will be for the better.
The situation is ambiguous, but in the end it could also work to Ukraine’s advantage. Yes, today Russia is receiving large sums of money, including through energy-related factors, but there is still a belief that this is temporary. If Iran changes over time, a great deal may be restored.
This can be compared to medicine: sometimes surgery is necessary. It is not always possible to rely on pills alone. After surgery there is always a difficult period, side effects, and a hard recovery. The same thing is happening now in the energy sphere.
But there is still optimism. America’s interests with regard to Iran and Europe’s interests with regard to Iran should ultimately coincide.
— The situation around the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has exposed an obvious problem: without energy independence, there may be no defense capability. If the strait is blocked and war begins in Europe, the question will arise of how to fuel military equipment and what industry will run on. How is this seen, and how can such a problem be addressed?
— There is no ready-made answer as to exactly how this should be resolved. But the problem definitely exists.
One thing can be said with certainty: Europe must not return to Russian energy sources, as some European politicians are calling for today. That would be a major mistake.
There is Norway, there are the United States. There are other options as well. There is still a belief that Iran will not be able to sustain such a situation for long. So for now, this period has to be endured and alternative sources must be found. But not Russia.
— How is the idea of increasing energy production by democratic states to meet defense needs perceived — that is, expanding domestic production in the West so as not to depend on authoritarian regimes?
— The question is understandable, but it is not clear how large those capabilities really are. For example, Lithuania has only limited resources of its own. But in general, Western countries do have such resources — including Canada.
However, this should not be set against green energy. On the contrary, if green energy is used more extensively in industry, more oil and gas will remain available for those sectors where they are still indispensable.
This applies especially to oil, which is necessary for military purposes — for aviation and other defense tasks. Therefore, it cannot be said that green energy is unnecessary. It is necessary. The optimal approach is precisely a combination: the development of clean energy together with the preservation of sufficient volumes of traditional resources for defense needs.
— So it is specifically a combination that is being referred to?
— Yes, absolutely.
Exclusively for Guildhall.
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