The crisis around the Strait of Hormuz has shown that domestic oil and gas production remains an important element of Western countries’ energy security and broader strategic capacity. However, in order to really strengthen resilience, it must be complemented by reliable logistics, protection of supply routes and a more diversified energy system.
Harold “Skip” York, a freelance researcher on energy and global petroleum at the Baker Institute Energy Research Center at Rice University, said this in an interview with GuildHall.
– What lessons should the United States and its allies learn from the current tension around the Strait of Hormuz for their energy security and strategic planning?
– For decades, the closure of the strait was seen as a known risk, but was largely ignored as something “unthinkable”. The key lesson of this crisis is that the US and its allies should view Hormuz as a chronic vulnerability rather than a one-off crisis. Europe’s vulnerability to geopolitical shocks remains due to its continued dependence on imported fossil fuels traded on volatile global markets. Dependence has shifted from Russia to other suppliers — not only to the US, but also to the Middle East (for example, half of Europe’s aviation fuel imports come from the Gulf countries). The diversification of supplier countries is insufficient if transit routes remain single (for example, the Strait of Hormuz, the Suez Canal). Serious efforts must be made to improve the stability of supply chains by increasing redundancy, improving the coordination of diplomatic and security tools, and including energy as one of the key elements of national strategic planning. Energy security means not only supply volumes, but also the stability of supply chains, that is, to what extent and how quickly supplies can be restored after a disruption. This crisis shows that the global oil and natural gas trading system is optimized for efficiency and cost reduction at the expense of redundancy, and the price for this shortsightedness is now becoming obvious.
– To what extent does dependence on foreign energy supplies limit the military capabilities and stability of Western countries?
– For most Western countries, dependence on external energy supplies does not immediately limit military capabilities, but it reduces long-term resilience, increases costs and increases the vulnerability of supply chains — all of which make war planning more difficult. This problem is more pronounced for some European and Indo-Pacific allies, but currently remains manageable for the US. However, even for the US, the vulnerability has not disappeared; it has shifted from heavy import dependence to vulnerability to prices, fuel logistics, and risks associated with bottlenecks in allied regions.
– Domestic oil and gas production remains fundamental, but in itself an insufficient element of ensuring both energy security and defense readiness. It significantly strengthens stability and strategic flexibility, but only in combination with logistics, alliances and diversified energy systems. The current crisis in the Strait of Hormuz is a reminder of the importance of supply chains that are protected from bottlenecks.
Two important clarifications regarding the strategic value of US production:
a. There is a problem of mismatch in refining capacity, as the US primarily produces light low-sulfur oil from shale deposits, while its refining system was largely designed to process heavier grades of oil (increasingly imported from Canada), which makes exporting excess light low-sulfur oil an economically necessary solution. The abundance of crude oil production does not automatically mean that refined petroleum products are sufficiently available for military needs.
b. The problem with providing fuel in the theater of operations is that the advantage of domestic production disappears when forces are deployed abroad. China controls a significant part of refining capacity in the Western Pacific, which means that access to refined fuels, such as aviation fuel, in the area of operations may be limited in times of conflict, regardless of US oil production.
Exclusively for Guildhall.
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