Europe’s dependence on imported energy resources continues to be a key factor of vulnerability in the face of geopolitical instability. The crisis around the Strait of Hormuz has shown that even the diversification of suppliers does not eliminate risks if dependence on a limited number of transit routes and supply chains are not sufficiently stable.
Harold “Skip” York, a freelance researcher on energy and global petroleum at the Baker Institute Energy Research Center at Rice University, said this in an interview with GuildHall.
According to him, the current tension around the Strait of Hormuz demonstrates the systemic vulnerability of global energy supplies. “For decades, closing the strait was seen as a known risk, but was largely ignored as something ‘unthinkable’,” he said.
This crisis should not be viewed as a one-time event, but as a permanent risk factor. “The US and its allies should view Hormuz as a chronic vulnerability,” he said.
According to him, Europe’s dependence on fuel imports, which has only changed geography but has not disappeared, is of particular concern. “Dependence has shifted from Russia to other suppliers — not only to the US, but also to the Middle East,” he said, adding that a significant part of supplies, including aviation fuel, comes from the Gulf countries.
At the same time, the expert stressed that diversification of suppliers alone is not enough. “If transit routes remain isolated, such as the Strait of Hormuz or the Suez Canal, vulnerability remains,” he said.
In this regard, he called for strengthening the stability of energy supply chains. According to him, it is necessary to “increase redundancy, improve the coordination of diplomatic and security tools and consider energy as a key element of strategic planning.”
“Energy security means not only the volume of supplies, but also the ability to quickly restore them after a failure,” the expert emphasized.
He also noted that the current global energy trading system is “optimized for efficiency and cost reduction at the expense of redundancy”, and the consequences of this approach become obvious during the crisis.
Thus, according to the expert, without reducing dependence on imports and increasing the stability of supply chains, Europe will remain highly vulnerable to external shocks.
Earlier, the need to strengthen the EU’s energy stability by developing infrastructure and diversifying supplies was emphasized. In particular, it was noted that increasing the interconnectedness of gas and electricity networks within the European Union was one of the answers to the reduction in imports from Russia after 2022, but these measures are not yet sufficient to minimize external risks.
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