An increase in arms supplies to Ukraine will shift the course of Russia’s war against Ukraine, which should be a common goal for the West. As a result, the war will become so difficult for Russia that it will lead to the conclusion that victory is impossible and that its objectives cannot be achieved.
This was stated in an interview with Guildhall by retired Brigadier General of the German Bundeswehr, Klaus Wittmann.
— Sir, there is a big discussion ongoing, about whether Ukraine is cable to continue fighting. How do you assess Ukraine’s ability to continue the war?
I think the brave Ukrainian people and military are able to hold out for some time to come. One must not overlook their successes: the long resistance to the Russian onslaught in general, but also hit military airfields, launchers, command posts, oil refineries, targets in Crimea as well as the destruction of one third of the Russian Black Sea fleet, which no longer ventures near the coast, and also the growing own armaments and especially drone production — not to mention the horrendous Russian losses of personnel and material. And the Ukrainian Kursk offensive – with Russia’s still helpless response to the first military occupation of Russian soil since the Second World War ! — has in my view destroyed the nimbus of Russia’s invincibility. In addition, its serious economic and demographic problems are easily overlooked
On the other hand, the situation in eastern Ukraine remains tense. Despite the slowness of the Russian advance and the months-long battle for individual key cities such as the important junction of Pokrovsk, the Ukrainian forces are under extreme pressure. Defence is increasingly becoming a delaying action in the direction of less fortified terrain. If the half-heartedness of Western arms supplies continues, ‘mass instead of class’ will prevail, and the troops will have to retreat further, also in view of growing personnel shortness, especially as Russia’s own human losses are leaving Putin cold.
— Could an increase in military aid to Ukraine turn the tide of the war, leading to a «dynamic paradox»—a situation in which no course of action by Russia would result in a desired outcome?
Yes, indeed, and “turning the tide” towards Ukrainian victory must be the common goal of all Western countries – not least in their own interest. In my view the war will not end by physical reconquering every square kilometre of Ukrainian soil, but by making the situation so difficult and untenable for the invaders that their generals will judge that the war cannot be won, that Putin’s objectives cannot be reached.
Besides more battle tanks, armoured personal carriers and armoured transport vehicles, ammunition, air defence weapons and personnel reinforcement, this requires deep strike capabilities including the pertinent authorisations. Long-range weapons such as the Taurus cruise missile are of the essence, including the permission to use them against militarily essential target on Russian soil – air fields, launching sites, command posts, logistic facilities, transport hubs and the like. This could sustainably impair Russian command and supplies. Also, since air defence will never be sufficient to protect all regions, infrastructure and front troops, it is desirable to prevent as many launches as possible.
A drastic increase in Western military aid must also be based on the realisation that in many respects it was too little too late in the first three years of the war. More European efforts might also influence President Trump’s perspective on Ukraine.
As for him, one must hope that Putin, with his intransigence and the offer of a ‘bad deal’, will soon try President Trump’s patience to such an extent that the latter — with much more courageous and massive support from the Europeans — will finally give Ukraine all the weapons and permissions it needs to prevent it from falling victim to a “dictated” peace from a position of weakness.
Brigadier General (re.) Dr. Klaus Wittmann teaches contemporary history at Potsdam University. Journalist — Taras Mokliak.
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