Deterring Russia requires a combination of certainty and uncertainty. Moscow must know that a response will definitely follow while remaining uncertain about what exactly that response will be. At the same time, the West should not respond to Russia using the same means, and the counterstrike does not necessarily have to be carried out by the country that was attacked.
British journalist and commentator Edward Lucas said this in an interview with Guildhall.
“I think deterrence requires a mixture of certainty and uncertainty. The other side must know that you will definitely respond, but remain uncertain about what that response will be,” Lucas said.
According to the commentator, he has been promoting the idea of asymmetric deterrence in his articles for The Times, his think tank and other publications.
“It is asymmetric in the sense that you do not respond using the same means. It is lateral in the sense that the counterstrike does not necessarily come from the victim of the attack,” he explained.
As an example, Lucas described a situation in which Sweden could respond to a Russian cyberattack against Lithuania by seizing several vessels belonging to Russia’s shadow fleet. If Poland were attacked by Russian drones, the United Kingdom could respond with a cyberattack that would disable a Russian regional bank.
“The idea is to keep the Russians guessing about what will happen, while making sure they very quickly learn that when they do this, something bad happens,” the commentator stressed.
Lucas noted that the West has far fewer deterrence tools in the sub-threshold domain than it has in the event of a conventional threat of military confrontation.
“We have press releases, summoning the Russian ambassador to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, expelling diplomats, closing consulates and other missions, and economic sanctions. But none of this really works. Russia is not afraid of it,” he said.
According to the commentator, the West must rebuild its system for deterring Russian hybrid attacks.
“We need to rebuild the deterrence ladder in the sub-threshold domain so that every time Russia does something against us below the threshold, we do something genuinely painful to Russia in response. Then the Russians will think that it is better not to do it. But right now, through all these attacks, we are effectively giving them the green light,” Lucas said.
He stressed that there must be a response to any Russian action, including propaganda attacks, cyberattacks, airspace incursions and the use of dirty money in politics.
“Whatever the Russians do, we must have a response because we have delayed for so long that we now need to restore the credibility of our deterrence,” the commentator concluded.
Только главные новости в нашем Telegram, Facebook и GoogleNews!
Tweet